Highest temperature in Miami on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Miami get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Miami International Airport, and which two-degree range it falls into. A result of 92-93°F means a typical hot Miami summer day; 90-91°F means slightly cooler than usual; 94-95°F means an unusually intense heat spike. Think of it as a thermometer snapshot: just the peak reading for that one day. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at Miami International Airport (station KMIA) on July 23, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical records for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit, so 92.7°F would count as 92°F. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears on that page, after which any later corrections to the July 23 data are ignored. Whichever two-degree range contains that final number wins. No recent news relevant to Miami's July 23 temperature was provided. The two headlines from July 22 cover unrelated topics: flood relief in India and a Florida education appointment. To follow this market, the thing worth watching is short-range weather forecasts for South Florida in the days leading up to July 23, particularly any heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns in the region. Miami in late July is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters tightly around 90-93°F. The real uncertainty is the few degrees that separate the buckets. A passing storm can drop the peak reading; a stalled high-pressure system can push it higher. The difference between 91°F and 92°F is genuinely hard to forecast even 24 hours out. Weather models improve closer to the date, but small local variations at one specific airport station add an extra layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 92-93°F49%
• 90-91°F38%
• 94-95°F10%
• 88-89°F4%
• 96-97°F2%
• 86-87°F1%
• 84-85°F1%
• 98°F or higher1%
• 79°F or below0%
• 80-81°F0%
• 82-83°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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