Highest temperature in Miami on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Miami? The three options are ranges: 88-89°F, 90-91°F, or 92-93°F. A Yes on any one range means the peak temperature that day falls inside those two degrees. It is a straightforward weather question, just with the answer split into three buckets instead of a single number. After July 24, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Miami International Airport weather station record on Weather Underground and finds the single highest temperature reading logged that day, rounded to a whole degree. Whichever range that number falls into wins. One detail worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears before settling, so any last-minute corrections to the July 24 record still count, but changes made after that cutoff do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of information that would matter most is not available yet: things like extended forecasts, unusual weather patterns near that date, or reports of a heat wave approaching Miami in late July 2026 would all be worth watching as the date gets closer. Miami in late July is reliably hot, but the difference between 89°F and 91°F on any given day is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. Cloud cover, sea breeze timing, humidity shifts, and passing rain showers can all move the peak temperature by a few degrees. The market currently prices 90-91°F as the most likely range at 48%, with the other two options splitting the rest roughly evenly, which reflects real uncertainty about where exactly the thermometer lands on one specific afternoon.

The odds right now

• 90-91°F45%
• 88-89°F29%
• 92-93°F22%
• 94-95°F3%
• 86-87°F2%
• 82-83°F1%
• 84-85°F1%
• 96-97°F1%
• 80-81°F0%
• 98°F or higher0%
• 79°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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