Highest temperature in Milan on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. The three options, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C, each represent a possible peak. To picture it: 30°C is about 86°F, a warm summer day but not extreme. 31°C is closer to 88°F, noticeably hot. The market is essentially asking people to guess which of those three bands the afternoon peak will land in. The market settles based on one specific data point: the highest temperature logged at Milan's Malpensa Airport weather station on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whichever option contains that number wins. One thing worth noting: Malpensa is outside the city center, so its reading may differ slightly from what someone in Milan itself would feel. The result is locked in once data for July 25 appears on the site, after which no corrections to the July 24 reading will count. No recent news was provided for this market. For a weather question like this, what would matter closer to the date is the seasonal forecast for northern Italy in late July 2026, and whether any heat wave or unusual pressure system is expected. Those kinds of forecasts only become meaningful in the days just before July 24. Weather is genuinely hard to call more than a few days out, and this market resolves over a year from now. The three options are closely bunched, just one degree apart, which means a small shift in conditions tips the outcome. July in Milan can range from mild to intensely hot depending on whether a heat dome settles over southern Europe. The market currently leans toward 30°C at 40%, but the spread across all three options is wide enough that no outcome is close to certain.

The odds right now

• 30°C42%
• 31°C27%
• 29°C22%
• 28°C or below9%
• 32°C4%
• 33°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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