Highest temperature in Milan on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 23, 2026, at its peak? The three options are 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C, and you are picking which one best matches the single hottest reading of that day. To give you a sense of scale, 30°C is about 86°F, 31°C is about 88°F, and 32°C is about 90°F. These are warm summer temperatures, roughly the kind where you feel uncomfortable in direct sun but it is not an extreme heat wave. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged on July 23, 2026, at Milan's Malpensa International Airport station, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number used will be a whole degree in Celsius, so there is no rounding ambiguity between fractions. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. Whichever option bracket contains that final number wins. There is no recent news available that is relevant to this market. That is completely normal given the event is over a year away. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal weather forecasts for northern Italy in late July, or any unusual climate patterns across Europe in the weeks before. Long-range weather forecasting is genuinely unreliable more than about two weeks out, so predicting a single day's peak temperature more than a year in advance carries real uncertainty. The market currently leans toward 31°C at 43%, with 30°C and 32°C each getting meaningful shares, meaning participants see a reasonably spread range of outcomes. Late July in Milan can vary a lot year to year, from mild days to intense heat waves, and there is no way to know today which kind of summer 2026 will bring.

The odds right now

• 31°C43%
• 32°C25%
• 30°C22%
• 29°C or below9%
• 33°C5%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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