Highest temperature in Milan on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, how hot will it get in Milan? Specifically, it asks you to pick the peak temperature for that single day, recorded at Malpensa International Airport. The three options are 28°C or below (a relatively mild summer day), 29°C (warm), or 30°C (quite hot). Think of it as choosing which bucket the afternoon high falls into, measured in whole degrees Celsius. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Malpensa Airport on July 25, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. Whichever temperature range contains that peak reading wins. The key detail: temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so a reading of 29.7°C counts as 29°C, not 30°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that page. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The one headline in the feed is about a hospital administration issue in Malaysia, which has no connection to Milan's weather. To follow this market, the useful things to watch closer to the date would be European summer weather forecasts and any heat wave advisories for northern Italy in late July 2026. Late July in Milan is reliably warm, which is why the market clusters around 28 to 30°C rather than spreading wide. But even a narrow three-degree range is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. Day-to-day temperature swings depend on whether a heat dome sits over the region, whether thunderstorms cool the air, or whether Atlantic air pushes through. The market currently splits its weight roughly between 29°C and the cooler end, with 30°C trailing, but conditions a year out are simply unknown.

The odds right now

• 29°C32%
• 28°C or below29%
• 30°C26%
• 31°C14%
• 32°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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