Highest temperature in Moscow on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Moscow get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at Vnukovo Airport, which is one of Moscow's main airports and the official measuring point. The three options are 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C, which in everyday terms is a mild-to-warm summer day, roughly 68 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit. You pick which of those three temperatures you think the thermometer will hit at its peak. The market settles based on NOAA's hourly temperature data for Vnukovo Airport on July 23, 2026. The highest single reading recorded that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius, determines which option wins. NOAA publishes this data publicly. One important detail: the result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears, so any late corrections to July 23 readings after that cutoff are ignored. Only the three listed temperatures can win, so if the actual high falls outside that range, other options not shown here would apply. The one news item provided is about flood relief in a region of India, which has no connection to Moscow weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a short-range weather forecast for Moscow around July 23, or an unusual pressure system moving through western Russia. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, in July 2026. That long horizon means any forecast today is essentially meaningless for pinning down a single degree of precision. The three options are tightly clustered, just one degree apart each, so even a small shift in conditions changes the outcome. The market currently splits most of its probability between 21°C and 22°C, reflecting typical Moscow July temperatures, but a cool or warm spell on that specific day could easily shift things.

The odds right now

• 22°C39%
• 21°C37%
• 23°C13%
• 20°C9%
• 19°C2%
• 24°C2%
• 18°C or below1%
• 25°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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