Highest temperature in Moscow on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Moscow get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius at Vnukovo Airport, which sits on the southwestern edge of the city. The three options, 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C, cover a narrow band roughly equivalent to 70°F to 73°F, a mild-to-warm summer day. Only one of these three numbers will win, depending on the peak thermometer reading that day. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded at Vnukovo Airport (airport code UUWW) on July 24, 2026, as published by NOAA in their hourly data table. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so a peak of 22.7°C would count as 22°C, not 23°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on the NOAA page. Any small corrections NOAA makes before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the date is over a year away, the kind of information that would actually matter, like extended forecasts or unusual climate patterns for Moscow in late July 2026, simply does not exist yet. Seasonal climate data for Moscow in late July is the most useful background for now. A single degree of difference separates all three leading options, and that is a very tight margin for a forecast more than a year out. Even professional weather models lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks. Late July in Moscow typically brings warm days, but the exact peak on any given day depends on clouds, wind shifts, and passing weather systems that are impossible to anticipate this far ahead. The market's three options are closely priced, which honestly reflects how genuinely uncertain a one-day temperature reading is at this range.

The odds right now

• 22°C38%
• 23°C35%
• 21°C14%
• 24°C13%
• 20°C2%
• 25°C2%
• 19°C or below1%
• 26°C1%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.