Highest temperature in Munich on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Munich on July 24, 2026? The three options are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C, which in Fahrenheit are roughly 75°F, 77°F, and 79°F. Think of it as predicting the peak afternoon heat at Munich's airport on a specific summer day. The market currently puts 25°C as the most likely outcome at 44%, with 24°C second at 28%, and 26°C third at 20%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Munich Airport (station code EDDM) on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 24.7°C would count as 24°C, not 25°C. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 25 appears on that site. Any corrections posted before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about technology in Tennessee and has nothing to do with Munich temperatures. What would actually matter here: European weather forecasts for late July 2026, any unusual pressure systems forming over Central Europe, or historical temperature records for Munich in late July. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 24, 2026 is still roughly a year away. At this range, the three leading options are clustered within just two degrees of each other, which is a very narrow band. A small shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather front could easily push the peak reading from one category to another. The spread across 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C reflects that kind of tight, real uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 25°C42%
• 24°C25%
• 26°C25%
• 27°C4%
• 23°C4%
• 22°C1%
• 28°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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