Highest temperature in Munich on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Munich's airport? The three options are 22°C, 23°C, or 24°C, which is roughly the difference between a mild summer day (22°C is about 72°F) and a comfortably warm one (24°C is about 75°F). You are picking which single degree reading will turn out to be the peak temperature that day, not a range or an average. After July 23, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground website for the Munich Airport Station and reads the highest recorded temperature for that day in whole degrees Celsius. Whatever single degree number that station recorded as its peak, that is the outcome. There is one small detail worth knowing: if the data is revised before the first reading of July 24 is published, the revision counts. After that, the original reading is locked in, even if corrected later. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market this far out, what would actually matter is a shift in long-range seasonal forecasts for Bavaria in late July, or an emerging climate pattern like a persistent heat dome or cold trough over Central Europe as the date approaches. Weather prediction more than a year in advance is genuinely very hard. Long-range forecasts beyond about two weeks are not reliable for a single specific day. Munich in late July has historically averaged highs around 23 to 25°C, which is why the market clusters there, but a single day can easily fall several degrees above or below the seasonal norm depending on wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather system. The spread across just three degrees reflects real, honest uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 23°C42%
• 22°C31%
• 24°C17%
• 21°C9%
• 25°C3%
• 20°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.