Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: how hot will New York City get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks what the single highest temperature of the day will be, measured in degrees Fahrenheit at LaGuardia Airport. A 'Yes' for a given range, say 80-81°F, means the thermometer peaked somewhere in that band that day, not higher, not lower. There is no Yes or No here, just one winning temperature range out of several options. After July 23, 2026 ends, the market checks the official Weather Underground page for LaGuardia Airport and finds the highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Whichever temperature range contains that number wins. One small detail worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point of July 24 appears before it locks in, and any late corrections to the July 23 reading are only counted if they happen before that cutoff. No recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense since July 23, 2026 is still about a year away. Weather forecasts are not reliable more than about 10 days out, so no reporting would be meaningful yet. What would actually matter to watch is any forecast issued in the days just before July 23, 2026, especially from the National Weather Service. Weather a year in advance is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision. Even on the morning of July 23, a two-degree shift in wind direction or cloud cover could move the peak temperature by a few degrees. The market currently leans toward 80-81°F at 45%, which is consistent with typical late-July highs in New York City, but any given July day can easily run 10 or more degrees above or below the average. The range boundaries are narrow, just two degrees each, which makes this harder to call than a simple hot-or-not question.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F48%
• 82-83°F27%
• 78-79°F19%
• 84-85°F6%
• 76-77°F2%
• 86-87°F2%
• 74-75°F1%
• 72-73°F0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 71°F or below0%
• 90°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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