Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest temperature of the day be in New York City on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it uses the weather station at LaGuardia Airport as the official measuring point. Participants pick a two-degree range, and whoever picks the range that contains the actual peak temperature wins. Think of it like guessing the day's high on a weather app, but committing to a narrow band. After July 24, 2026 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's records for the LaGuardia Airport station and finds the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured in whole-degree Fahrenheit. Whichever two-degree range contains that number wins. One small detail worth knowing: the market waits until the first reading of July 25 is published before it officially settles, to allow any late corrections to July 24's data to be captured. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline listed is about a hospital administration issue in Malaysia, which has no connection to New York City weather. What would actually matter here is weather forecasts published closer to July 24, 2026, or historical data on how hot late July typically gets at LaGuardia Airport. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now. Late July in NYC typically sits in the low-to-mid 80s°F, which is why the market clusters there, but a heat wave could push the reading into the upper 80s or beyond, while an unusual cool front could drop it into the 70s. The two-degree resolution bands are also narrow, meaning even a good general forecast could land in the wrong bucket by just one degree.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F43%
• 84-85°F30%
• 80-81°F22%
• 86-87°F7%
• 78-79°F2%
• 88-89°F2%
• 77°F or below1%
• 90-91°F1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 96°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.