Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the peak afternoon temperature be in Paris? The three options are 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C, which in Fahrenheit are roughly 81°F, 82°F, and 84°F. Think of it as guessing whether Paris has a mild summer day, a warm one, or a noticeably hot one. The market currently favors 28°C as the most likely outcome, with 29°C in second place. After July 24, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks one specific source: the Weather Underground page for Paris-Le Bourget Airport. They look at the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins. One important detail: temperatures can be revised slightly during the day, but once the first reading for July 25 appears on that page, the final number is locked in and no further changes count. No recent news relevant to Paris weather on July 24, 2026 was provided. Since the date is still roughly a year away, reliable forecasts simply do not exist yet. What would matter to watch closer to the date: long-range seasonal outlooks for Western Europe in summer 2026, and of course short-range weather forecasts in the final days before July 24. Weather a year in advance is genuinely unpredictable, even for meteorologists with powerful computers. The three options here cover only a 3-degree range, so a single passing cloud system, a shift in wind direction, or an unexpected heat dome could easily push the reading outside any of those brackets entirely. The market is also only showing three choices, so it is worth noting that a reading of 26°C or 30°C or higher would likely resolve to a bracket not listed here, depending on how the full market is structured.

The odds right now

• 28°C48%
• 29°C28%
• 27°C19%
• 30°C5%
• 26°C3%
• 31°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 24°C or below0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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