Lowest temperature in Paris on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest temperature in Paris be during the night and day of July 23, 2026? Specifically, it uses the Le Bourget Airport weather station, just northeast of the city center, to find the single lowest temperature reading that whole day. The options are 13°C (about 55°F), 14°C (about 57°F), or 15°C (about 59°F), which are all cool-but-mild overnight lows typical of a Paris summer night. Once July 23 is over and the first data point for July 24 appears on Weather Underground's Le Bourget page, the market settles based on whichever whole-degree Celsius reading was the lowest recorded that day. No decimals: if the station records 14.7°C, it counts as 14°C. The market uses only that one specific weather station, and only the final reading before midnight closes the day. Revisions made after the first July 24 data point appears are ignored. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The one headline provided is about a local political incident in Louisiana and has no connection to Paris weather. For a market like this, the things worth watching closer to the date would be European weather forecasts, any unusual heat or cold patterns over France, and the specific overnight forecast for the Paris region around July 22 into 23. Weather forecasts more than a few days out are genuinely hard, and this market settles more than a year from now, so no meaningful forecast exists yet. Even close to the date, overnight lows can shift by a degree or two based on cloud cover, wind, or humidity. The spread across the three options reflects that: the market currently prices 14°C as most likely at 40%, but 15°C and 13°C together account for nearly half the probability, showing real uncertainty across a narrow three-degree window.

The odds right now

• 14°C32%
• 15°C32%
• 13°C20%
• 16°C9%
• 17°C2%
• 12°C1%
• 11°C or below1%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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