Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Qingdao get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport weather station. Participants pick a temperature, in whole degrees Celsius, and whoever picks the correct one wins. Think of it like guessing the peak of a thermometer at one specific location on one specific afternoon in a coastal Chinese city in the middle of summer. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded on July 23, 2026, at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport, pulled from the weather history site Wunderground. The number used is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C, not 32°C. The market cannot close until at least one temperature reading from July 24 appears on that site, confirming the previous day is complete. Any corrections Wunderground makes before that cutoff count, but corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would matter most is closer-in: seasonal weather outlooks for eastern China in late July, or any unusual climate patterns developing in the months before the date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market is over a year away, which makes any forecast now essentially a guess based on historical averages. The top three options, 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, together account for about 76% of the market's probability, meaning the range is fairly tight but no single temperature dominates. Qingdao sits on the coast, where sea breezes can keep peak temperatures lower than inland cities, but summer heat spikes are still common and hard to forecast this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 31°C33%
• 30°C23%
• 32°C21%
• 29°C10%
• 33°C or higher10%
• 28°C4%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.