Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature of the day be in São Paulo on July 24, 2026? The options are specific whole-number temperatures in Celsius, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak reading for that day. July 24 falls in São Paulo's winter, so the question is essentially: how warm does the city get on one particular winter day, with 17°C, 18°C, and 19°C being the three leading possibilities. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at São Paulo's Guarulhos International Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius. The market waits until the first data point for July 25 appears on that page, then locks in whatever the peak was. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to this weather question was provided. The only headline available is about a hospital administration issue in Malaysia, which has no connection to São Paulo temperatures. To follow this market meaningfully, you would want to watch short-range weather forecasts for São Paulo in the days just before July 24, 2026, particularly any cold fronts or warm spells moving through the region. Winter weather in São Paulo is genuinely variable. The city sits at around 760 meters elevation, and July days can range from cold and overcast to surprisingly mild depending on wind direction and whether a cold front has just passed. The market is spread across three close temperatures (17°C, 18°C, 19°C), each just one degree apart, which means even a small shift in conditions changes the outcome. A single cloud cover difference on the day can move the peak temperature enough to cross a boundary.

The odds right now

• 17°C33%
• 18°C33%
• 19°C18%
• 16°C14%
• 20°C3%
• 15°C2%
• 21°C2%
• 14°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 13°C or below1%
• 23°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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