Highest temperature in Seattle on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Seattle get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, and which 2-degree range it falls into. So if the hottest moment of the day hits 81°F, the '80-81°F' range wins. It is not about the average temperature or the morning low. Just the peak heat of that one day, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit. The market settles based on the official peak temperature logged at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (station code KSEA) on July 24, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whichever 2-degree range contains that number is the winner. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that site. One thing to note: small revisions to the recorded temperature can still shift the result right up until that cutoff, so a reading of exactly 80°F versus 79°F could matter a great deal. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That is not unusual this far from the date. The kind of development worth watching as July 2026 approaches would be extended weather forecasts for the Pacific Northwest, particularly any signals of a heat dome or unusually cool marine air pattern, since both have shaped Seattle summers in recent years. Weather a year in advance is genuinely hard to predict, and Seattle's July temperatures are especially variable. The city sits between the Pacific Ocean and the Cascades, so cool marine air can push highs into the low 70s while inland heat can push them into the 90s or beyond. The market spreads probability across many ranges, with no single outcome above 33%, which reflects that honest uncertainty. Even a week out, Seattle forecasts can shift significantly, so the current odds are more about historical patterns than any real forecast.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F35%
• 82-83°F25%
• 78-79°F18%
• 84-85°F12%
• 76-77°F10%
• 86-87°F3%
• 74-75°F1%
• 73°F or below1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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