Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, how hot will it get in Seattle? Specifically, it wants you to pick the two-degree range that captures the single highest temperature of that day, measured at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. A result of 76-77°F means a warm but fairly typical summer day in Seattle. A result of 78-79°F means a touch hotter. A result of 74-75°F means a cooler day by Seattle summer standards. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded on July 23, 2026, at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, using Weather Underground's data for that station. Whichever two-degree range contains that single highest reading wins. The temperature is recorded in whole degrees, so there is no rounding issue between ranges. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears, and any last-minute corrections to July 23 data made before that cutoff still count. No recent news was provided that is relevant to this market. That is not surprising, since July 23, 2026 is still well in the future. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for the Pacific Northwest, any developing heat dome patterns, or official weather outlooks from NOAA for late July 2026. Weather this specific, this far out, is genuinely hard to pin down. July in Seattle typically lands in the mid-to-upper 70s, which is why 76-77°F leads the market at 38%, but a single day can easily run several degrees warmer or cooler depending on wind patterns, marine air, or a heat event. Forecasts more than a week or two out carry significant error. The market is spread across multiple ranges, which reflects that honest uncertainty rather than a clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• 76-77°F27%
• 78-79°F25%
• 74-75°F21%
• 80-81°F11%
• 72-73°F10%
• 82-83°F4%
• 70-71°F2%
• 84-85°F1%
• 69°F or below1%
• 86-87°F0%
• 88°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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