Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in the Seoul area? The answer options are specific degree values in Celsius, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak temperature recorded that day. July 24 falls in the middle of Seoul's summer, when daytime highs typically range from the upper 20s to the low 30s Celsius, roughly 82 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit. The market currently leans toward 30°C as the most likely outcome, but 29°C and 28°C are close behind. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket matches the highest reading recorded on July 24, 2026, at the Incheon International Airport weather station, as shown on Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so there is no partial-degree ambiguity. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 25 appears on that page, meaning any corrections made before that moment count, but corrections after it do not. One thing worth knowing: the station is at Incheon Airport, which sits on the coast west of central Seoul, so its readings can differ slightly from temperatures in the city center. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is still more than a year away, the kind of developments worth watching for would be seasonal forecasts for the Korean Peninsula in summer 2026, or any unusual climate patterns in East Asia as that date approaches. Meaningful weather signals typically only emerge a few weeks before the day itself. Weather a full year out is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision, which is the core challenge here. Even professional meteorologists can only give reliable day-specific predictions about two weeks in advance. The three leading options (28, 29, and 30°C) together cover only about 77% of the market, meaning there is meaningful probability spread across other temperatures too. Seoul summers can produce heat waves pushing above 33°C or cooler, overcast days below 28°C, so the range of realistic outcomes is wide. The coastal airport location adds another small layer of unpredictability compared to inland Seoul.

The odds right now

• 30°C31%
• 29°C28%
• 28°C18%
• 31°C13%
• 27°C11%
• 26°C4%
• 32°C or higher4%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 23°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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