Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Shanghai Pudong Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. A result of 35°C means the peak heat that day sits in the 35-degree range, roughly 95°F. The market gives you several temperature buckets to choose from, and whichever bucket contains the actual recorded high temperature wins. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 25, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole number, so 35.7°C would count as 35°C. The market cannot close until the first data point for July 26 appears on that site, meaning it waits for the day to fully finish. Any corrections to the temperature recorded during the day are accepted, but only up to that cutoff point. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline listed appears to be about a hospital in Malaysia and has no connection to Shanghai weather. What would actually matter here is extended weather forecasts for Shanghai in late July 2026, or historical temperature data for that date in previous years, neither of which is available in the provided information. Late July is reliably hot in Shanghai, but predicting the exact peak temperature over a year in advance is genuinely difficult. The market spread across 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C reflects real uncertainty: those three buckets together cover most of the probability, meaning the honest answer is that any of them is plausible. Day-to-day weather swings, cloud cover, humidity, and whether a heat wave or cooler front passes through that specific week can all shift the peak reading by a few degrees in either direction.

The odds right now

• 35°C32%
• 36°C28%
• 34°C19%
• 37°C14%
• 33°C5%
• 38°C4%
• 32°C2%
• 39°C or higher1%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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