Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Shanghai get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Shanghai's Pudong Airport, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Think of it like asking which degree mark the thermometer peaks at during the hottest part of that afternoon. The three main options are 35°C (95°F), 36°C (97°F), and 37°C (99°F), each representing a narrow band of summer heat. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whichever whole-degree Celsius reading is the highest that day wins. The market cannot close until the first temperature data point for July 25 appears on that site, confirming the previous day is complete. One edge case worth knowing: if Weather Underground revises a reading before that July 25 cutoff, the revised number counts. After that point, no corrections matter. The two news items provided are about Lebanese politics and a court case involving Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Neither has any connection to Shanghai's weather or this market. No relevant recent news was provided. The kind of update that would actually matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for the Yangtze River Delta region as July 24 approaches. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and July 24, 2026 is still about a year away, making any prediction now essentially a guess based on historical patterns alone. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C, reflecting real uncertainty. Late July in Shanghai is consistently hot and humid, but the exact daily peak depends on short-term factors like cloud cover, wind, and whether a heat dome is present. A one-degree difference is a very fine target to hit.

The odds right now

• 36°C36%
• 35°C32%
• 37°C17%
• 34°C13%
• 38°C6%
• 33°C2%
• 32°C1%
• 39°C1%
• 40°C or higher0%
• 31°C0%
• 30°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.