Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Shenzhen, measured at the city's main airport weather station? You are picking which temperature bucket that peak reading will land in. The three main options are 33°C, 34°C, or 35°C, which in everyday terms span a range from a very hot day (33°C is about 91°F) to an extremely hot one (35°C is about 95°F). Only the single highest reading of the day counts. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on July 25, 2026, as recorded by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 34.7°C would count as 34°C, not 35°C. The final number is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 25 data before that cutoff are counted, but corrections after it are ignored. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The headline listed appears unrelated to Shenzhen weather. For a market like this, the things worth watching closer to the date would be official forecasts from China's meteorological service and any regional heat advisories for southern Guangdong province in late July. Late July in Shenzhen is reliably hot and humid, so the market is not asking whether it will be warm, just exactly how warm. The spread across 33°C, 34°C, and 35°C reflects genuine day-to-day variability that even good forecasts struggle to pin down a year in advance. A passing cloud, a sea breeze, or a nearby rain shower can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. The specific airport station also matters: it can read differently from the city center. No forecast tool reliably predicts exact daily highs more than a week out.

The odds right now

• 34°C37%
• 33°C24%
• 35°C22%
• 36°C11%
• 32°C8%
• 37°C3%
• 31°C2%
• 30°C1%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C or higher0%
• 29°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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