Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest reading of the day be at Shenzhen's main airport on July 24, 2026? You are not picking a range of temperatures, you are picking one specific whole-number degree, like 33°C or 34°C. The market currently thinks 34°C is the most likely answer at 35%, with 33°C close behind at 32%, and 35°C at 16%. Late July in Shenzhen is deep summer, so highs in this range are completely typical for the city. The market settles on whichever single degree Celsius matches the peak temperature logged that day at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, as recorded on the Weather Underground website. The reading must be in whole degrees, so 33.7°C would count as 33°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 24 data made before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. For a question like this, what would matter most is a seasonal forecast for southern China in late July 2026, or any climate pattern signal such as a strong El Niño or La Niña affecting summer heat in the region. Those details are not available here yet, and July 2026 is still well ahead. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and this market resolves over a year from now. The three leading options are separated by just a few degrees, and in Shenzhen's humid subtropical summer, a single degree of difference can come down to cloud cover, sea breeze, or rain on that specific day. The market is fairly spread across the top two choices, which reflects that honest uncertainty well. No forecast today can reliably pin down a single degree that far in advance.

The odds right now

• 34°C45%
• 33°C34%
• 35°C18%
• 32°C5%
• 36°C3%
• 31°C1%
• 37°C or higher1%
• 30°C1%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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