Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, how hot will it get in Taipei? Specifically, it asks which temperature bucket will match the single highest reading of the day at Taipei Songshan Airport. A Yes on 36°C means the hottest moment of that day hits exactly 36 degrees Celsius, not 35, not 37. Think of it like guessing the peak on a thermometer over one full day in a famously hot and humid city in the middle of summer. At the end of July 24, 2026, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground page for Taipei Songshan Airport and find the single highest temperature recorded that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius. Whichever bracket that number falls into wins. One important detail: if the temperature is revised before midnight local time that day, the revision counts, but any correction made after the following day's first data point appears will be ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about flood relief in a region of India, which has no connection to Taipei's weather. What would actually matter here is a weather forecast for Taipei in late July 2026, or historical data showing what typical peak temperatures look like at that station around that date. July in Taipei is consistently hot and humid, so the range of outcomes is naturally narrow, which is why the three buckets shown cover only a three-degree spread. Even so, predicting the exact peak on one specific day a year in advance is genuinely hard. A passing typhoon, a stalled weather system, or an unusual wind pattern could push the temperature a degree or two in either direction. The market currently splits its weight mostly between 35°C and 36°C, with 37°C as a real but less favored possibility.

The odds right now

• 36°C40%
• 35°C28%
• 37°C21%
• 34°C9%
• 38°C4%
• 33°C3%
• 39°C or higher1%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 29°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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