Highest temperature in Taipei on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at a specific weather station in Taipei? The three choices are 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C, and you are picking which one the thermometer actually hits at its peak. To put it in everyday terms, 35°C is about 95°F, a very hot summer day. 36°C is around 97°F, and 34°C is around 93°F. Taipei in late July is deep in its hottest season, so all three options are realistic. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket contains the single highest reading recorded that day at the Taipei Songshan Airport weather station, using data from the website Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. There is no other deciding authority, just that one station and that one source. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The headline included is about groundwater in Islamabad and has no connection to Taipei weather. What would actually matter here is any seasonal forecast for Taiwan in late July 2026, or reports of unusual heat patterns in East Asia around that time. The honest answer is that weather prediction more than a year out is genuinely hard. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across three closely spaced outcomes, which reflects real uncertainty: 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C are only two degrees apart, and a slight shift in wind, cloud cover, or humidity on that one day can easily push the peak reading from one bracket into another. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably pick a single-degree outcome at this distance in time.

The odds right now

• 35°C35%
• 36°C35%
• 34°C22%
• 37°C9%
• 33°C3%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 38°C or higher1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.