Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Taipei get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Taipei Songshan Airport, and you pick which temperature bucket that peak lands in. A 'Yes' on 35°C means the hottest moment of that day hits exactly 35 degrees Celsius, not 34, not 36. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for one summer day in one of Asia's hottest cities. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on July 25, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The temperature is measured in whole degrees Celsius, so 34.7°C would count as 34°C, not 35°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; any made after do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. What would matter to watch for is any forecast or climate outlook for Taipei in late July 2026, or reports of unusual heat or cooling patterns in East Asia around that time. Taipei in late July is typically very hot and humid, so historical context is useful background, but it does not replace an actual near-term forecast. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this date is still in the future, so no real forecast exists yet. The three leading buckets, 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C, together account for roughly 79% of the market's probability, which tells you most participants expect a hot but not extreme day. The real uncertainty is whether conditions on that specific day push slightly cooler or slightly hotter than typical, and a single degree either way changes the outcome entirely.

The odds right now

• 34°C32%
• 35°C25%
• 36°C18%
• 33°C16%
• 37°C or higher10%
• 32°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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