Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tel Aviv get on July 23, 2026, at its hottest point in the day? The three options are 33°C, 34°C, or 35°C (roughly 91°F, 93°F, and 95°F). You are picking which single temperature the thermometer peaks at that day. It is not about the average temperature or the overnight low, just the single highest reading of the day. The market settles using official temperature data from NOAA, recorded at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv. Whoever runs the market will look at every hourly temperature reading for July 23, 2026, find the highest one, and match it to whichever option (33°C, 34°C, or 35°C) that number falls in. The data must be in whole degrees Celsius. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears, so late corrections to July 23 data after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is more than a year away, the main thing worth watching closer to the date would be long-range weather forecasts for the Tel Aviv area in late July 2026, and any unusual regional heat patterns that forecasters flag. Late July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the range of outcomes here is already narrow: the market is choosing between just three single-degree options. The real difficulty is that one degree is a very small margin. A sea breeze, a slightly different wind direction, or a passing cloud can shift a daily peak by exactly that much. Long-range forecasts cannot reliably predict a single-degree difference more than a few days out, let alone a year out, which is why the three options remain genuinely competitive.

The odds right now

• 34°C56%
• 33°C40%
• 35°C5%
• 32°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 29°C or below0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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