Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tel Aviv get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius at Ben Gurion Airport, which sits just outside the city. You pick a temperature, and if that number turns out to be the peak reading for the day, that option wins. It is a straightforward weather question with a specific number as the answer. The market settles based on NOAA's official hourly temperature log for Ben Gurion Airport on July 24, 2026. Whoever runs the market looks at every temperature reading listed for that day and finds the highest single number. That number, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, decides which option wins. One important detail: any corrections NOAA makes to that day's data are only counted until the first reading of July 25 appears. After that, the record is locked in as-is. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the most useful things to watch for closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Mediterranean, any regional heat-wave outlooks, and NOAA's own historical records for this airport in late July. July in Tel Aviv is reliably hot, so the question is less about whether it will be hot and more about exactly which degree it lands on. The market currently prices 32°C as the most likely outcome at 56%, but single-degree precision is genuinely hard to forecast, especially more than a year out. A sea breeze, a passing weather system, or a regional heat event could each shift the peak by a degree or two. The tight spread between 31, 32, and 33 reflects real uncertainty about the exact number.

The odds right now

• 32°C56%
• 33°C19%
• 31°C14%
• 34°C5%
• 30°C2%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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