Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at Tokyo's Haneda Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? You pick a temperature bucket, and if the actual daily high lands in that range, that bucket wins. It is not about average temperature or nighttime lows, just the single hottest reading of the entire day. The leading guess right now is 32°C, which is roughly 90°F, a hot but typical Tokyo summer day. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Haneda Airport on July 25, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The number used will be rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. The source is one specific website and one specific station, so small differences between weather services are irrelevant here. No recent news was provided that is relevant to this market. That is completely normal for a weather question about a date more than a year away. The kind of update that would matter is a seasonal climate forecast for Tokyo in summer 2026, but those are not yet available at this range. Tokyo's late July temperatures are shaped by its humid subtropical climate, so historical patterns for that date are the main reference point right now. A year-plus out, no weather model can tell you the temperature on a specific future date. Tokyo late July is reliably hot and humid, but the daily peak can swing several degrees depending on cloud cover, wind direction, rain, and urban heat patterns that day. The spread in the current odds reflects that genuine uncertainty: 32°C leads at 39%, but 31°C and 33°C together account for most of the remaining probability. Even close to the date, a passing weather system can shift the peak reading by a few degrees.

The odds right now

• 32°C34%
• 33°C26%
• 34°C17%
• 31°C14%
• 30°C6%
• 35°C3%
• 29°C2%
• 28°C1%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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