Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how hot Tokyo will get on one specific summer day: July 24, 2026. You pick a temperature bracket, and if the highest temperature recorded that day lands inside it, that bracket wins. The three main options are 32°C, 33°C, and 34°C, which in Fahrenheit are roughly 90°F, 91°F, and 93°F. Late July in Tokyo is deep summer, typically humid and hot, so these ranges reflect what a normal but warm summer day there looks like. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on July 24, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, no decimals. Whichever temperature bracket contains that number wins. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 25 appears on that site, meaning any last-minute corrections to July 24 data made before that cutoff still count. After that point, no revisions matter. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That is normal this far out, since July 2026 is still well ahead. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts from Japan's Meteorological Agency, or signals about whether that summer is trending hotter or cooler than average due to broader climate patterns. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict, and even a few days out, single-day peak temperatures can shift by several degrees based on wind, cloud cover, or rain. The market currently spreads its probability fairly evenly across 32°C, 33°C, and 34°C, each around 22 to 28%, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite. Tokyo's late-July heat varies year to year, and an unusual heat wave or an overcast day could each push the result outside the most common range.

The odds right now

• 32°C43%
• 33°C36%
• 34°C13%
• 31°C9%
• 35°C3%
• 30°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.