Highest temperature in Toronto on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be at Toronto's main airport? There are three possible answers the market is choosing between: 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C (roughly 75°F, 77°F, and 79°F). Think of it as picking which single degree on a thermometer the afternoon peak will land on. The market currently leans toward 25°C, with 25°C getting about 47% of the probability. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 25.7°C would count as 25°C, not 26°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. There is no specific recent news relevant to this market. That is completely normal, since the event is over a year away. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal weather outlooks for Ontario in late July, and any heat advisory or forecast issued by Environment Canada in the days leading up to July 23, 2026. Weather forecasting more than a year out is genuinely very hard. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably predict a specific city's daily high temperature more than about two weeks in advance. Late July in Toronto typically sees highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, which is why the market clusters around 24 to 26°C, but any single day can run cooler or warmer than that range. The gap between 24, 25, and 26°C is just one degree, and a passing cloud or a shift in wind direction can make that difference.

The odds right now

• 25°C46%
• 24°C26%
• 26°C22%
• 23°C7%
• 27°C2%
• 22°C2%
• 28°C or higher1%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 19°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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