Highest temperature in Toronto on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day at Toronto's main airport? The three options are 25°C, 26°C, or 27°C, and you are picking which one the thermometer will hit as its peak. In practical terms, these are all warm summer days in Toronto, roughly 77°F to 81°F, so the question is really about whether that day leans mild, comfortable, or a bit hot. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on July 24, 2026, pulled from the weather site Wunderground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so a reading of 26.7°C would count as 26°C, not 27°C. The final number is locked in once Wunderground publishes the first data point for July 25, after which any later corrections to the July 24 data are ignored. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. That is not surprising, since the date is still well over a year away. The kind of development that would matter is a long-range seasonal forecast for summer 2026 in southern Ontario, but those forecasts are not yet reliable at this distance. Weather more than a year away is genuinely hard to pin down. Even professional meteorologists cannot forecast a specific day's high temperature beyond about two weeks with real confidence. The three options are all closely bunched within a 3°C range, which makes the call especially sensitive to small shifts in weather patterns on that particular day. The market currently leans toward 26°C at 45%, but the other two options together hold 51%, so there is meaningful spread across all three.

The odds right now

• 26°C44%
• 25°C25%
• 27°C22%
• 24°C6%
• 28°C4%
• 29°C2%
• 23°C2%
• 22°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 21°C or below0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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