Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Warsaw, measured in whole degrees Celsius at the city's main airport weather station? The options are 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C. You can picture this as: will that afternoon feel like a mild summer day around 20°C (about 68°F), a warm one around 21°C (70°F), or a noticeably warmer one around 22°C (72°F)? After July 24, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at Warsaw Chopin Airport, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 21.7°C would count as 21°C. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears on that website before officially closing, to make sure the full day's readings are captured. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes seasonal weather forecasts for Central Europe in late July, or any unusual climate pattern signals for that region in summer 2026 as the date approaches. July is over a year away, which makes this genuinely hard to predict. Even professional weather forecasts become unreliable beyond about two weeks. Warsaw's late-July highs can vary quite a bit from year to year depending on whether a heat wave, a cooler Atlantic air mass, or typical Central European summer conditions arrive that specific day. The three options are clustered within just two degrees of each other, which means even a small shift in conditions changes the outcome entirely.

The odds right now

• 21°C43%
• 20°C34%
• 22°C17%
• 19°C8%
• 18°C2%
• 23°C2%
• 24°C or higher1%
• 17°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 14°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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