Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like in Warsaw? Specifically, it asks which single temperature, measured in whole degrees Celsius, will be the peak reading at Warsaw's Chopin Airport weather station that day. A result of 19°C means the day topped out around a mild 66°F, while 20°C means a slightly warmer day near 68°F, and 18°C would be a cooler summer day around 64°F. These are all relatively mild temperatures for late July. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so a reading of 19.7°C, for example, would count as 19°C, not 20°C. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading for July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 23 data made before that cutoff point count, but corrections made after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the key things to watch closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for central Europe in late July 2026, and any extended weather outlooks for Warsaw specifically. Weather a full year in advance is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably predict a specific city's daily high temperature more than about two weeks out. The three leading options, 18, 19, and 20°C, are clustered tightly together, meaning a single degree of difference separates each outcome. That makes this especially hard to call, since even small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover on the day itself can tip the reading one way or another.

The odds right now

• 19°C34%
• 20°C33%
• 18°C24%
• 21°C8%
• 17°C5%
• 16°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 15°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 14°C or below0%
• 24°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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