Highest temperature in Wellington on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how warm will Wellington, New Zealand get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, will the day's peak temperature hit 13°C, 14°C, or 15°C? July is the middle of winter in New Zealand, so these are cool, wintry numbers, not a heat wave. A Yes on 14°C means the thermometer at Wellington Airport tops out somewhere in the 14-degree range that day, not a degree higher or lower. After July 24 ends, the market checks the official high temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on that day, using Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whatever whole-number Celsius figure shows as the day's peak decides the winner. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 25 appears, so any late corrections before that point count, but corrections after do not. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree, so no decimals are involved. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Wellington's weather on July 24, 2026. The headlines cover unrelated geopolitical topics. For this market, what would actually matter is a long-range weather forecast for Wellington closer to that date, or historical climate data showing what temperatures are typical for the city in late July. Weather forecasting this far out is genuinely difficult. July 24 is still roughly a year away, and no forecast model can reliably predict a single city's daily high temperature that far in advance. Even a week out, Wellington's weather is famously changeable because of its coastal, windy location. The market currently leans toward 14°C, but the gap between 13°C and 15°C is narrow, and a shift in wind direction on that one day could easily swing the result by a degree or two.

The odds right now

• 14°C55%
• 13°C26%
• 15°C16%
• 12°C3%
• 16°C1%
• 11°C1%
• 17°C1%
• 10°C0%
• 8°C or below0%
• 9°C0%
• 18°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.