Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, how hot will it get in Wuhan? Specifically, it asks which temperature the day's peak will hit, with three options: 33°C, 34°C, or 35°C (roughly 91°F, 93°F, and 95°F). The market currently leans toward 34°C as the most likely outcome, but all three options are in play. It is a simple question about one number on one day at one weather station. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 34.7°C would count as 34°C, not 35°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections to the July 23 data before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the kind of development worth watching for would be any major long-term climate pattern signal, such as an unusually strong El Niño or La Niña forecast for summer 2026, which can shift regional temperatures across central China. Mid-July in Wuhan is reliably hot, so the question is not whether it will be warm but exactly which degree it lands on. A single degree is a very narrow target. Daily peak temperatures are sensitive to small shifts: a passing cloud, a brief rain shower, or a slight change in wind direction can push a day from 33°C to 35°C. Weather forecasting more than a few days out carries real error, and a year out it is essentially impossible to predict a single day's high to within one degree.

The odds right now

• 34°C45%
• 33°C28%
• 35°C20%
• 32°C9%
• 36°C or higher2%
• 31°C2%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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