Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Wuhan get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Wuhan's main airport weather station. The outcome options are whole-number temperatures in Celsius, so the question is basically: will that day's peak heat land at 33°C, 34°C, 35°C, or some other value? To put those numbers in perspective, 34°C is about 93°F and 35°C is about 95°F, which is a hot but fairly typical summer day for Wuhan in late July. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged on July 24, 2026, at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree Celsius number appears as the day's peak, that is the outcome. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 25 is published, meaning it waits for the full day to be recorded. One edge case worth knowing: if Weather Underground revises the temperature before that first July 25 data point appears, the revision counts. After that cutoff, no corrections are considered. There is no specific recent news available for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the most useful things to watch for closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for central China, any major climate pattern signals like El Niño or La Niña that could push temperatures above or below normal, and historical temperature records for Wuhan in late July. Weather this far out is genuinely impossible to predict with precision. The market currently places the most weight on 34°C at 36%, with 35°C close behind at 30%, reflecting that late July in Wuhan is consistently hot but the exact daily peak varies. A single weather system, a cloudy afternoon, or an unusual heat pulse could easily shift the result by one or two degrees either way. Even with strong seasonal patterns, day-level forecasts beyond a week or two carry real uncertainty, and one degree is a very narrow target.

The odds right now

• 34°C33%
• 35°C31%
• 36°C19%
• 33°C12%
• 37°C5%
• 32°C4%
• 31°C1%
• 38°C1%
• 30°C or below0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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