Human moon landing in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple yes-or-no question: will any human being actually set foot on the moon, or at least touch down there in a crewed spacecraft, before the end of 2026? A Yes means astronauts physically land on the lunar surface this year. A No means it does not happen, whether because a mission is delayed, cancelled, or never launched in the first place. Any country or private company counts, not just NASA. The market settles Yes the moment any crewed spacecraft physically touches down on the moon before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The crew does not need to walk out or complete the mission successfully. A touchdown alone is enough, even if something goes wrong afterward. If no landing happens by that deadline, it resolves No. The decision is based on a consensus of credible news reporting, not a single official source. None of the news provided is relevant to this question. There are no recent reports about lunar missions, spacecraft launches, or space program updates in the headlines given. If you want to track this market, the developments worth watching would be official NASA or private spaceflight announcements about Artemis mission scheduling or any other crewed lunar program timelines. The market currently prices this at just 2%, which means participants collectively see a landing this year as very unlikely. The main uncertainty is not really two competing sides: it is simply whether something unexpected and dramatic happens on a very compressed timeline. Crewed lunar missions require years of preparation, and no program has publicly confirmed a 2026 landing date. The small remaining probability mostly reflects the slim chance that a mission currently not on the public radar surprises everyone.

The odds right now

• Human moon landing in 2026?-1.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.