July Inflation US - Monthly: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much US consumer prices changed in July 2026 compared to June 2026, measured as a single monthly step. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, tracks the cost of everyday things like groceries, rent, gas, and healthcare. A result of 0.1% or higher means prices ticked up that month. A result of 0.0% means prices were essentially flat. A result of -0.1% means prices actually fell slightly. The market is essentially asking: did inflation nudge up, hold still, or dip in July? This market resolves, meaning it gets its final answer, on August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its official CPI report for July. The BLS rounds the number to one decimal place, and that single rounded figure decides everything. So 0.14% and 0.19% would both become 0.1% and land in the same outcome. If the BLS delays its release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report date, and if data still does not arrive by then, it resolves using the most recent available monthly figure instead. No recent news was provided that directly relates to US inflation in July 2026. The headlines available cover topics like fuel subsidies in Cambodia, gold prices, and Asian markets, none of which clearly point to what US consumer prices did last month. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be new US jobs or wage data, energy price swings inside the US, or any Federal Reserve comments about price trends. Monthly inflation figures are genuinely hard to pin down in advance, even for professional economists. Small moves in energy prices, shelter costs, or food prices can shift the number from 0.0% to 0.1%, which here is the difference between two separate outcomes. The market currently puts roughly 70% odds on prices rising at least a little, with 30% on flat. The rounding rule adds a layer of difficulty: the true number only needs to cross a very small threshold to flip the outcome, so the call can be very close even when the underlying economy looks stable.

The odds right now

• ≥0.1%70%
• 0.0%22%
• -0.1%3%
• -0.6%0%
• -0.2%0%
• ≤-0.7%0%
• -0.5%0%
• -0.4%0%
• -0.3%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 12, 2026

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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