Kash Patel out by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking when Kash Patel will stop being the director of the FBI, if at all. Patel was appointed as FBI director by President Trump. A 'Yes' on a given date means he will have left that role, for any reason, by that date. A 'No' means he is still in the job. The two dates being tracked are July 31, 2025 and December 31, 2025, and you are essentially asking: does he leave soon, or later in the year? The market settles as 'Yes' the moment Patel is no longer FBI director, or the moment a resignation or removal is officially announced, even if it has not taken effect yet. It settles as 'No' if he is still in the role at 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. The sources used to confirm this are official White House or government communications, or a broad agreement among credible news outlets. There is no minimum time he must be gone, just that it happens at all. None of the recent news provided is related to Kash Patel or the FBI. There is nothing here to draw on. The kind of news that would matter for this market would be reports of conflict between Patel and the administration, congressional hearings, or any public signals about his standing in the role. The core difficulty is that departures at this level are often unpredictable and can happen very fast or not at all. The market puts the chance of him leaving by July 31 at just 2%, meaning it sees his near-term exit as very unlikely. By December 31, that rises to 36%, reflecting real but not dominant uncertainty over a longer window. Political dynamics, internal disputes, or outside events could shift things quickly, and none of that is easy to forecast in advance.

The odds right now

• December 31-10.5 pts (1w)37%
• July 31-4.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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