MA-09 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which party will win the Massachusetts 9th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2026. A Yes on Democrat means a Democratic candidate wins that seat; a Yes on Republican means a Republican wins it. The MA-09 district covers part of southeastern Massachusetts, including areas around the South Shore and Cape Cod, and has historically leaned Democratic. The market settles based on who wins the November 3, 2026 election in MA-09. The winner's party is determined by their official ballot affiliation. If a candidate runs without a clear party label, the market uses whichever major party they have said they will caucus with. The result is confirmed through credible news reporting first, and if there is any dispute, the Federal Election Commission's official numbers are the final word. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. There is no recent reporting here about MA-09 candidates, campaigns, or Massachusetts politics. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes candidate announcements, primary results, notable fundraising figures, or any redistricting changes affecting the district. At 95% for Democrats, the market is heavily one-sided, and the honest framing is that this is not a close call by current expectations. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens: a strong Republican candidate emerges, a Democratic incumbent faces a serious scandal, or national conditions shift dramatically before November 2026. The district's long Democratic lean makes a Republican win possible in theory, but the market currently treats it as unlikely.

The odds right now

• Democratic Party+1.0 pts (1w)95%
• Republican Party6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.