MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the Democratic Party's primary race for Michigan's 11th congressional district in 2026. A Yes for Jeremy Moss means he wins the Democratic nomination, becoming the party's official candidate for the general election. A Yes for Aisha Farooqi means she wins that same nomination instead. This is only about the primary, meaning the contest within the Democratic Party, not the November general election against Republicans. The market settles on whoever wins the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary vote in MI-11. The result is confirmed using official Democratic Party sources. One important detail: if someone wins the primary but then drops out and is replaced before the November general election, the market still resolves based on who won the primary, not who ultimately appears on the November ballot. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news is directly relevant to this Michigan race. The headlines cover a Maine Senate nominee swap and a British political story. There is nothing here about MI-11, Jeremy Moss, or Aisha Farooqi. The type of news that would matter for this market includes candidate announcements, endorsements from Michigan Democratic organizations, or any candidate entering or leaving the race before August 4, 2026. The market is heavily one-sided, with Moss priced at 92%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts the current picture. That could mean a strong late entrant joining the race, a major endorsement shifting momentum toward Farooqi, a scandal, or a shift in local issues that changes voter energy. With the primary still in the future, there is time for the landscape to change, even if the current odds suggest most participants see Moss as the strong frontrunner.

The odds right now

• Jeremy Moss+7.8 pts (1w)92%
• Aisha Farooqi-7.9 pts (1w)8%
• Don Ufford+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Andy Levin0%
• Dave Woodward0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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