MLB: Player to be Traded by 2026 Trade Deadline?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will a specific MLB player be traded to a different team before the 2026 trade deadline? A 'Yes' means the player changes teams through a trade before that cutoff. A 'No' means they stay with their current team, or their situation changes in a different way, like being released or retiring, which also counts as No under the rules. The market settles as Yes if an official trade is completed before August 3, 2026 at 9:59 PM ET. One important edge case: if a player is released, retires, or is no longer on any MLB roster by the deadline, it still resolves No, even though they technically left their team. Only an actual trade triggers a Yes. MLB official records or a strong consensus of credible sports reporting will confirm the outcome. None of the provided news headlines are related to MLB, these players, or baseball trades. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be trade rumors from MLB reporters, a team falling out of playoff contention and deciding to sell players, or contract extension talks breaking down. All three players are priced above 90%, so the market strongly leans toward each being traded. The main remaining uncertainty is not a back-and-forth debate, it is simply whether something unexpected prevents a trade: an injury, a surprise contract extension, a team reversing course, or a deal falling through at the last minute. At these odds, the market is expressing high confidence, and the real question is just whether the unlikely outcome occurs.

The odds right now

• Luis Arraez94%
• Freddy Peralta94%
• Robbie Ray91%
• Tarik Skubal91%
• Casey Mize88%
• Kevin Gausman72%
• José Soriano56%
• Adrian Morejon50%
• Reid Detmers45%
• Ryan Jeffers35%
• Zach Neto35%
• Jarren Duran26%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Major League Baseball player is traded by August 3, 2026, 9:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.