MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how close the MO-01 Democratic primary race will be on August 4, 2026. MO-01 is Missouri's 1st Congressional District. The question is not who wins, but by how much. A small margin, under 4 percentage points, means a very tight race where the top two candidates finished nearly neck and neck. A larger margin means one candidate pulled away more clearly. The two names listed, Bell and Bush, are the expected top contenders. After the August 4, 2026 primary, the market settles based on the official vote gap between the first- and second-place finishers. That gap is calculated as a simple percentage-point difference. The Missouri Secretary of State's official results are the final word. If a recount happens, the market stays open until it finishes. One edge case worth noting: if results are still not official by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to a catch-all 'Other' outcome regardless of what informal counts show. None of the provided news headlines relate to the MO-01 primary race. To follow this market, the kinds of developments worth watching would be candidate endorsements, polling from the district, fundraising totals, or any candidate withdrawing or entering the race before August 4. Primary races in a single congressional district are genuinely hard to call. Turnout in local primaries can swing wildly based on ground game, endorsements, and name recognition on a given day. The margin question adds another layer: even if one candidate is favored to win, the size of the gap is much harder to predict. The market is spread across several outcomes, with no single bracket commanding a clear majority, which reflects real uncertainty about how competitive the final result will be.

The odds right now

• Bell <4%33%
• Bush <4%25%
• Bell 4–8%8%
• Bush 4–8%8%
• Bush 8–12%5%
• Bush 12–16%4%
• Bell 8–12%4%
• Bell 16%+3%
• Bush 16%+3%
• Bell 12–16%3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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