MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the Democratic Party's nomination to run for Missouri's 4th congressional district seat in the U.S. House in 2026. A win here is not winning the actual seat in Congress, just winning the right to represent the Democratic Party in the November general election. Think of it as the internal party vote that decides who their official candidate will be. The market settles based on who wins the Democratic primary vote on August 4, 2026. Whichever candidate is officially declared the Democratic nominee, confirmed by party sources, wins the market. One important edge case: if someone wins but is later replaced as the nominee before the general election, the market still resolves to whoever won the primary, not the replacement. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, it resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race or Missouri's 4th district in any meaningful way. The headlines cover unrelated topics from other countries and fields. To follow this race, it would be worth watching local Missouri political news, candidate campaign announcements, and endorsements from Missouri Democratic Party figures in the weeks before August 4, 2026. The market currently prices Hartzell Gray as a strong frontrunner at 71%, so the main open question is simply whether something unexpected shifts the race before primary day. In a lower-profile congressional primary, turnout is usually low and hard to predict, which can amplify surprises. Local endorsements, late campaign activity, or simply who shows up to vote can move results. With about 10% of odds unaccounted for, the market also leaves some room for an outcome outside the listed candidates.

The odds right now

• Hartzell Gray-5.5 pts (1w)72%
• Jordan Herrera+2.9 pts (1w)17%
• Jeanette Cass-2.9 pts (1w)2%
• G Rick-1.4 pts (1w)1%
• Wayne Russell-9.7 pts (1w)0%
• Ashleigh Rogers-2.1 pts (1w)0%
• Randy Miller-3.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.