"Moana (2026)" 3rd Weekend Box Office: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much money the 2026 live-action Moana film earns at domestic movie theaters during its third weekend of release, specifically July 24 to July 26, 2026. A result in the '10-11m' bracket means the film brings in between 10 and 11 million dollars that weekend. Lower brackets mean the film is fading faster at the box office, which is normal for most movies as weeks pass after opening. The market settles based on the final weekend gross reported by The Numbers website for the July 24-26 weekend, which may include Thursday preview earnings counted in that window. The key word is 'final': studio estimates come out Sunday night, but official confirmed numbers usually follow Monday or Tuesday. If the number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, it rounds up to the higher range. If no confirmed data exists by August 2, 2026, the market organizers will find another reliable source. None of the provided news headlines relate to Moana (2026) or its box office performance. There is no relevant recent news to draw from here. The kind of development worth watching for would be any reported opening weekend or second weekend earnings, since those numbers directly shape what a third weekend is likely to look like. Box office for a third weekend depends heavily on how the first two weekends performed, which is not yet known from the information provided. Competition from other films opening that same weekend matters a lot too. Disney animated films can hold well or drop sharply depending on audience word-of-mouth and school schedules. The market prices the 10-11 million bracket at 73%, suggesting a lean, but actual earnings can surprise in either direction based on factors not yet visible.

The odds right now

• 10-11m77%
• 9-10m23%
• 8-9m3%
• 11-12m2%
• <8m1%
• 12-13m1%
• 13m+1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to how much "Moana (2026)" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (July 24 - July 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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