ND-AL House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will win North Dakota's single U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. North Dakota is one of several states with only one congressional district, so the whole state votes for one representative. A Yes on Republican means a Republican wins that seat; a Yes on Democrat means a Democrat wins it. The market settles based on who wins the November 3, 2026 election for North Dakota's at-large House seat. The winner's party is determined by how they are listed on the ballot. If a candidate runs without a clear party label, their most recently stated intention to caucus with Republicans or Democrats is used instead. The result comes from credible news reporting, or from official Federal Election Commission results if there is any dispute. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be candidate announcements, primary results, or polling from North Dakota ahead of the November 2026 election. The market is heavily one-sided, priced at 94% Republican, which reflects North Dakota's history as one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens: an unusually strong Democratic candidate, a major national political shift, or a Republican scandal. Those things are possible but the market treats them as unlikely. This is less a close race and more a question of whether the unexpected occurs.

The odds right now

• Republican Party+1.0 pts (1w)94%
• Democratic Party+0.1 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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