NJ-03 House Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: which party will win one specific congressional seat in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections? NJ-03 is New Jersey's 3rd congressional district. A Yes for Democrats means a Democrat wins that seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Yes for Republicans means a Republican wins it. Whoever wins represents that district in Congress for a two-year term starting in January 2027. The market settles based on who actually wins the NJ-03 election on November 3, 2026. The winner is determined first by credible news reporting, and if that is unclear, by the official Federal Election Commission results. One nuance: if a candidate does not formally list a party on the ballot, the market looks at which party they said they would caucus with in Congress. The market closes once all 2026 House races are officially called. None of the provided news headlines relate to the NJ-03 race, New Jersey politics, or the candidates involved. No relevant recent news was provided. The kinds of developments worth watching would be candidate announcements, local polling, and any national political shifts that tend to reshape competitive congressional races ahead of a midterm. At 93% for Democrats, the market is heavily one-sided, so the honest framing is this: the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens. Midterms are over a year away, candidates may not even be confirmed yet, and national political conditions can shift significantly. A strong Republican wave, a weak Democratic candidate, or local controversy could tighten the race. But right now, the market is treating a Democratic win as the strong default outcome.

The odds right now

• Democratic Party93%
• Republican Party-1.0 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.