# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many people will watch MrBeast's next full YouTube video within the first 24 hours of it going live. A result in the 25-30M range means roughly 25 to 30 million views in that single day, which is about the population of Australia watching in one day. Yes or No does not apply here, since this is a range market: you are picking which bucket the final view count will land in, not whether something happens or not. Once MrBeast posts his next full YouTube video, the market waits a full 24 hours and then checks the view counter on his channel. Whatever number shows up gets matched to a range bracket, and that bracket wins. Shorts and previews do not count, only a proper video upload. One important edge case: if he posts nothing by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the market automatically settles to the lowest bracket shown, which here would be the 20-25M range. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be any new MrBeast video announcement, a change in his upload schedule, or news about his channel performance, since those would directly affect how many views his next video is likely to pull in day one. MrBeast's view counts vary significantly depending on the video topic, the thumbnail, the title, and how YouTube's algorithm promotes it on a given day. None of those factors are known yet because the video has not been made or posted. The market also ends in 2026, leaving a long window of time. The three main brackets are each priced between 25 and 28 percent, meaning the market itself sees genuine uncertainty spread fairly evenly across a wide range, which is an honest reflection of how hard this is to pin down.

The odds right now

• 25–30M32%
• 20–25M26%
• 30–35M24%
• 35–40M7%
• <20M7%
• 40–45M5%
• 45–50M4%
• 50M+2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.