Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which actor will win the Best Actor award at the 2027 Oscars ceremony. A 'Yes' for any listed actor means that specific person walks away with the Oscar on March 14, 2027. Right now, the market sees Matt Damon as the frontrunner at 33%, Tom Cruise close behind at 27%, and Andrew Scott as a real contender at 18%. The remaining probability is spread across actors not listed here, grouped as 'Other'. The market settles based on whoever AMPAS officially names the Best Actor winner at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony on March 14, 2027. There are two notable edge cases to know: if a listed actor does not receive a nomination when nominees are announced on January 21, 2027, that actor's market immediately resolves No, before the ceremony even happens. In the extremely unlikely event of a tied vote, the winner is determined alphabetically by last name, which would favor Cruise over Damon, and Damon over Scott. None of the provided news items relate to this market. No film announcements, performance reviews, or award-season developments for any of these actors appear in the recent headlines. The kind of news that would matter here includes major film releases from these actors in late 2026, early critical reactions, or movement in other precursor awards like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards, which typically signal Oscar momentum. This market is genuinely hard to call because we are still far from the ceremony, and the most important factor, the actual films these actors will be nominated for, is not yet fully known. Oscar outcomes depend on which movies get released, how critics and industry voters respond, and how awards season unfolds through early 2027. The three named actors together account for only about 78% of the market, meaning there is real probability on someone not even listed yet. A lot can change between now and January nominations.

The odds right now

• Matt Damon33%
• Tom Cruise27%
• Andrew Scott18%
• John Malkovich10%
• Ryan Gosling6%
• Brad Pitt5%
• Sebastian Stan4%
• Sam Rockwell3%
• John Turturro3%
• Javier Bardem3%
• Pedro Pascal1%
• Adam Driver1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves March 14, 2027

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.