Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: which actress will win the Best Actress award at the 2027 Oscars? A 'Yes' on any listed name means that actress takes home the award at the 99th Academy Awards ceremony on March 14, 2027. A 'No' means she does not win, either because she lost, was not nominated at all, or the ceremony did not produce a declared winner. Right now, Julianne Moore and Inde Navarrette are nearly tied as the market's top picks, each around 23-24%. This market settles based on whoever AMPAS officially names as the Best Actress winner at the live ceremony on March 14, 2027. If an actress listed here is not nominated when nominees are announced on January 21, 2027, her market closes immediately as No. If there is a tie between two winners, the one whose last name comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner for this market. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the whole market resolves as 'Other', meaning no one on the list wins. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no relevant headlines about the 2027 Oscar race, upcoming films, or awards season buzz. The thing to watch for in the months ahead would be major film releases, festival buzz from Venice or Cannes, early awards like the Golden Globes, and eventually the official Oscar nominations announcement on January 21, 2027. This is genuinely wide open, and the odds reflect that: the top three names combined account for only about 63%, leaving real probability spread across others not even listed. We are still far from the ceremony, meaning the key films have likely not all been released yet, let alone reviewed or nominated. Oscar races shift dramatically as movies come out and critics weigh in. An actress who is barely discussed today could emerge as the frontrunner by January 2027, which is exactly why no single name is above 25% right now.

The odds right now

• Julianne Moore26%
• Inde Navarrette23%
• Renate Reinsve16%
• Rachel Brosnahan7%
• Ruth Madeley7%
• Sophie Okonedo7%
• Virginie Efira6%
• Léa Seydoux6%
• Sandra Hüller5%
• Michelle Williams5%
• Scarlett Johansson5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves March 14, 2027

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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